-LRB- CNN -RRB- -- In less than a week , Turkey will hold its first direct presidential election , yet the mood about the country can hardly be described as electric .

This is strange given the usual excitement around elections in Turkey , the historic importance of this poll , and the exceptionally high level of socio-political tensions in recent years .

Besides the summer heat and the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan , the relative lull might be explained by the widespread anticipation that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan , candidate of the ruling AKP , will emerge triumphant from the ballot box , in either the first or the second round .

Erdogan understands power and pursues it like no other politician in Turkey 's modern history .

He has a tightening grip over all key state institutions , save perhaps the Constitutional Court . He also has a deeply emotional relationship with his followers , who rally around their leader more passionately as he faces stiffer opposition to his increasingly personal rule .

This is how he has survived massive anti-government protests , a damaging feud with former Islamist allies and a high profile corruption scandal , an appallingly mismanaged industrial disaster and successive foreign policy debacles -- latest being the abduction of 49 Turkish diplomats and consulate workers in Mosul by ISIS militants , whose rise some critics attribute in part to the AKP government 's open border policy for jihadis fighting in Syria -- all in the space of a year .

This might also explain the somber mood around many of his opponents , who seem to believe that having come so close to realizing his long standing ambition of becoming Turkey 's first popularly elected president , Erdogan will not let the opportunity slip .

But the lull should not overshadow the critical importance of the election .

To be sure , an Erdogan victory would amount to no less than regime change for Turkey .

It would mark the most crucial step yet in its decade-long transformation from an imperfect parliamentary democracy under military tutelage towards a `` plebiscitarian democracy '' -- characterized by a powerful executive , a weak or compliant legislative , and a charismatic leader-follower relationship that is periodically reaffirmed in general elections and referenda .

One would be mistaken to think of the presidency , under Turkey 's existing parliamentary system , as a ceremonial post that would deprive its occupant of the executive powers of a prime minister . Turkey has had ambitious presidents , such as Turgut Ozal -LRB- 1989 -- 1993 -RRB- and Ahmet Necdet Sezer -LRB- 2000 -- 2007 -RRB- , whose influence was checked by hostile lawmakers or meddlesome generals . A President Erdogan would n't face these obstacles : his party controls the parliament and the military has been tamed through EU-backed reforms and two highly politicized court cases .

The current constitution , drawn up by the military junta in 1982 , gives the head of state significant authorities , which Erdogan would push to the limit by invoking the `` national will '' he claims to embody ; a claim that would be further reinforced and personalized in the event of his election .

Where would this scenario leave those who feel increasingly alienated , stifled and marginalized in Erdogan 's new Turkey ? Another electoral loss would be sure to further dispirit those who hoped to see some change to the political status quo after the Gezi protests of last summer .

But in defeat , there might be a valuable and necessary lesson . The two main opposition parties -- the secular republican CHP and the nationalist MHP -- have formed an informal coalition for the sole purpose of posing a numerical challenge to the AKP 's relative majority , with anti-Erdoganism being their chief unifying cause .

Party leaders have handpicked candidates and determined election strategies with minimum public consultation . Only a handful of people were involved in the selection of Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu , the former secretary-general of the Organization for Islamic Cooperation , as the two parties ' joint candidate for presidency .

Predictably , this uninspiring , ultra-pragmatic , top-down tactic came short in the local elections -LRB- even when one takes into account the allegations of voting fraud , the AKP remains the clear overall winner -RRB- and risks failing in the presidential one . More importantly , this style of politics is inimical to the grassroots , democratic and pluralistic vision that the `` Gezi spirit '' has aspired to capture .

Whatever the outcome of the presidential election , those who wish to see this vision transformed into reality would be better served by focusing on the long term process rather than short term gains , and on building organizational capacity at the level of local politics instead of obsessing over the control of state institutions in Ankara .

Success in local politics paves the way for success in national politics , as Turkey 's political Islamists have shown time and again over the past two decades . But a true democratic transformation also requires devolution of political authority .

Since its foundation as a republic 91 years ago , Turkey 's excessively centralized political architecture has allowed those who attain control of the state to force their will on the entire population .

The machinery that repressed ethnic minorities and pious Muslims in the past is now alienating non-practicing Muslims , Alevis , LGBTI members and other social and political minority groups who do not fit in with Erdogan 's vision of an overtly religious neo-liberal Turkey .

Only a well-organized movement that takes its strength from local politics and stands for pluralism , decentralization and democratic rights and liberties of all citizens can break this vicious cycle of suppression and alienation .

Read more : Soma disaster threatens Turkey 's fragile social contract
Read more : Opinion : Striving for ` sameness ' Turkey stifles progress

@highlight

Karabekir Akkoyunlu says Turkey has excessively centralized political architecture

@highlight

That has allowed those who attain control of the state to force their will on the entire population , he writes

@highlight

He says Erdogan understands power and pursues it like no other politician in Turkey 's modern history